Abstract
The insurance
business is subject to specific risks, for the assessment and forecasting of
which requires an adapted toolkit, including a system of indicators, methods
for their calculation and evaluation. For the insurance industry, a reliable
scientifically based risk assessment methodology will allow to diagnose in a
timely manner factors that can lead to negative consequences or unfavorable
circumstances that can lead to non-fulfillment of the assumed obligations to
the insured and to develop in the most timely manner the most effective model
for making managerial decisions. The methodological platform of this study was
such risk analysis methods as sensitivity analysis, decision tree, scenario
method, Monte Carlo method, rating evaluation. The information base of the
research includes indicators of financial statements of insurance companies and
credit ratings of well-known rating agencies. The result of the study is a
comprehensive methodology for the integrated assessment and forecasting of
risks of insurance companies, based on a system of financial indicators
weighted by the probability of default, as well as non-financial indicators
that take into account the company's rating and unprofitable business lines.
Scientific results are tested on the example of one of the largest Russian
insurance companies.
Keywords
References
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Abstract
References
- Benish, M. (1999). The detection of earnings manipulation. Financial analysis journal. September.Ekimova, K., Bolvachev ,A., Dokhoyan ,Z., Danko, T., Zarova, E., Shemetkova, O., & Sekerin V.(2016). Improvement of the methods for assessing the value of diversified companies in view of modification of the herfindahl-hirschman model. Journal of Internet Banking and Commerce. Т. 21. No. SPEC.ISSUE 4. Ekimova, K., & Frumina, S. (2016). Economic practicability substantiation of financial instrument choice. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences. Т. 11. No.8. Pp. 1613-1623.Kazak, A.,& Slepukhina, Yu. (2010) Financial Risks in the Insurance Business: Models and Methods of Evaluation. Izvestiya Ural State University. No.2 (77). Pp. 75-89. Kazakova, N., (2003). Information-analytical system as a modern tool of economic analysis. Statistical issues. No. 10. Pp. 32-42.Kazakova ,N. (2017 ). Analytical procedures: experience of use in auditing and assessment of economic activity. Bulletin of the Financial University. No.2. Pp.113-120. Kazakova N., Gendon L., & Khlevnaya, E. (2016). Development potential of Russian mining-and-chemical holdings. GORNYI ZHURNAL. No. 7. pp. 89–91. Kazakova, N., Gendon, A., Khlevnaya, E., & Sedova, N. (2017). Prediction of development in the mining and chemical industry in Russia and in the world. Gornyi Zhurnal. No. 4. pp. 49–52.Kazakova, N., Bolvachev, A., Gendon, A., & Golubeva, G. (2016). Monitoring Economic Security in the Region Based on Indicators of Sustainable Development. Studies on Russian Economic Development. Vol. 27. No. 6. pp. 650–660.Kazakova, N., Bolvachev, A., Gendon, A., & Golubeva, G. (2017). Value Added Analysis and Trend Forecasting in the Manufacturing Industry in Kaliningrad Oblast. Studies on Russian Economic Development. Vol. 28. No. 2. Pp. 160–168.Kaplan, R., & Norton D. (1992). The Balance Score Card - Measures that drive performance, in: Harvard Business Review, Jan-Feb 1992. Pp. 71-79.Kaplan, R., & Norton, D. (1997). Balanced Scorecard: Strategien erfolgreich umsetzen, Stuttgart . P. 333.Karagod, V., Golubeva, N., & Erokhina E. (2017). Institute of Audit in Russia: Challenges and perspectives. Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics. Vol. 8, Issue 1. Pp. 330-339.Karagod, V., Golubeva, N., & Erokhina, E. (2018). The zones of turbulence in the Russian audit market. Abstracts & Proceedings of INTCESS 2018. 5th International Conference on Education and Social Sciences. No.1. Pp.1102-1105.Labusheva, J. (2015). Evaluation of the risks of the insurance company for making managerial decisions. P. 167.Review of key performance indicators of insurers. Information-analytical materials (2017). https://www.cbr.ru/finmarkets/files/supervision/review_insure_17Q4.pdf - Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Ukolov, A. (2014). Risk management of an insurance organization. P. 467. Wells, J. (2010) Handbook on preventing and detecting corporate fraud. P. 672.Wells, J. (2009) Corporate fraud. Lessons the negative side of the business. P. 624.Wells, J. (2008 ) Handbook on preventing and detecting corporate fraud. P. 80.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | January 10, 2019 |
| Submission Date | October 30, 2018 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2018Volume: 4 Issue: 12 |
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