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Year 2018, Volume: 4 Issue: 11, 432 - 447, 31.08.2018

Scott Vitkovic

https://doi.org/10.18769/ijasos.455670

Abstract

References

  • Adam, S. “China May Surpass U.S. by 2020 in `Super Cycle,' Standard Chartered Says”, Bloomberg, 15 November 2010. Anagnostou, A., Kallioras D. and Petrakos G. “Integrating the Neighbors: A dynamic panel analysis of EU-ENP trade relations”, SEARCH Working Paper, 2/11, September 2013. BEIJING, Xinhua. “China's Policy Paper on the EU: Deepen the China-EU Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Mutual Benefit and Win-win Cooperation”, 02 April 2014. Bendini, R. “Trade and economic relations with China 2014”, European Union Policy Department, 15 May 2014. Casarini, N. “The evolution of the EU-China relationship: from constructive engagement to strategic partnership”, European Union Institute for Security Studies, Occasional Paper No 64, October 2006. Commission of the European Communities, White Paper on Growth, Competitiveness, Employment – the Challenges and Ways Forward into the 21st Century, COM (93) 700 final, Brussels, December 1993. Chen, X. “China-EU Trade and Economic Relations (2003-2013) “, Working Paper Series on European Studies, Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Vol. 7, No. 7, 2013. Ciuchina, M. “Political Impact of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the European Union (EU)“, Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing, Vol. 9, No. 12, 1611-1618, ISSN 1548-6583, December 2013. Clegg, J. and Voss, H. “Chineese Overseas Direct Investment in the European Union “, Europe China Research and Advice Network, 2012. Das, D. “China’s Outbound Foreign Direct Investment: Sources of Growth and Transformation”, Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business, RCCPB Working Paper #35, August 2014. Dollar, D. “United States-China Two-way Direct Investment: Opportunities and Challenges “, Brookings Institution, January 2015. Dunkley, E. “China to overtake US by 2018 – PwC”, Investment Week, 13 Jan 2011. Erixon, F. and Messerlin, P. “Containing Sino-European Protectionism”, Economic Affairs, Vol. 29, Issue 1, pp. 83-85, March 2009. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0270.2009. 01874.x Freeman, D. “China's Outward Investment: A Policy Overview”, BICCS Policy Paper, 2008. Friedman, G. “A Net Assessment of the World “, Geopolitical Weekly, 19 May 2015. Geeraerts, G. “EU-China Relations “, Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies (BICCS), Published as Chapter 31, Thomsas Christiansen, Emil Kirchner and Philomena Murray (eds.), The Palgrave Handbook of EU-Asia Relations, Houndmills, Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 492-508, 2013, (ISBN 978-0-230-37869-8). Griese, O. “EU-China relations–an assessment by the communications of the European Union”, Asia Europe Journal, Volume 4, Issue 4, pp 545-553, December 2006. Gurdgiev, C. “China Threat: Europe's Exports Under Pressure “, True Economics, 07 January 2015. Hanemann, T. and Rosen, D. “China Invests in Europe: Patterns, Impacts and Policy Implications “, Rhodium Group, June 2012. Hawksworth, J. “Convergence, Catch-Up and Overtaking: How the balance of world economic power is shifting”, January 2010. Hawksworth, J., & Tiwari, A. “The World in 2050 - The Accelerating Shift of Global Economic Power: Challenges and Opportunities”, January 2011. Heron, T. “European Trade Diplomacy and the Politics of Global Development: Reflections on the EU–China ‘Bra Wars’ Dispute”, Government Opposition (Impact Factor: 0.5). 03/2007; 42(2):190 – 214, 14 March 2007. DOI:10.1111/j.1477-7053.2007. 00218.x Kennedy, S. “China's Porous Protectionism: The Changing Political Economy of Trade Policy”, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 120, No. 3 (Fall, 2005), pp. 407-432, Fall 2005. Kim, K. H. “China’s Entry into WTO and Its Impact On EU “, International Business & Economics Research Journal, Volume 3, Number 9, pp. 65-68, 2011. KPMG. “China Outlook 2015”. kpmg.com/cn and kpmg.com/globalchina Lian, L. “Overview of Outward FDI Flows of China”, International Business Research, Volume 4, No. 3; July 2011. McDonnell, J. “China-EU Relations: Trade and Beyond”, The Diplomat, 24 April 2014. Meunier, S. “A Faustian bargain or just a good bargain? Chinese foreign direct investment and politics in Europe “, Asia Europe Journal, Volume 12, Issue 1-2, pp 143-158, March 2014. Meunier, S. “Political Impact of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in the European Union on Transatlantic Relations”, European Parliament Briefing Paper, 2012. Meunier, S., Burgoon, B and Jacoby, W. “The politics of hosting Chinese investment in Europe”, Asia Europe Journal, Volume 12, Issue 1-2, pp 109-126, March 2014. O´ Hara, Ch. “China and the EU: Economy Prevails”, Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP), POLICY BRIEF, No. 37, October 01, 2010. Ross, J. “The central date for China's GDP to overtake the US at market exchange rates is 2019 - A study of growth assumptions and analysis”, Key Trends in the World Economy, 15 February, 2011. Sahoo, P. “Foreign Direct Investment in South Asia: Policy, Trends, Impact and Determinants”, ADB Institute Discussion Paper No. 56, Asian Development Bank Institute, November 2006. The World Bank, Development Research Center of the State Council, the People’s Republic of China. “China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society”, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, 2013. DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9545-5. http://www.worldbank.org/ Voss, H. “The Foreign Direct Investment Behavior of Chinese Firms: Does the 'New Institutional Theory' Approach offer Explanatory Power?”, Leeds University Business School Center for International Business Studies, June 2007. Wong, R. “The issues of Identity in the EU-China Relationship”, UACES Annual Conference, Panel 313, Passau, September 2012. WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION. “ACCESSION OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA”, WT/L/432, DECISION OF 10 NOVEMBER 2001, 23 NOVEMBER 2001. Zhang, H. “China’s direct investment in Europe: The reality behind the numbers”, Belgian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, Brussels, 14 September 2011. Zhang, H., Yang, Z. & Van Den Bulcke, D. “Chinese owned enterprises in Europe: A study of corporate and entrepreneurial firms and the role of sister city relationship”, Antwerp, Belgium, Euro-China Centre, Antwerp Management School, 2013. Zhang, H. “Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment in the EU”, Report, The EU SME Centre, Beijing, July 2014. European Commission, Directorate – General for Trade, Countries and Regions: China. http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/china/ European Commission, IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT ON THE EU-CHINA INVESTMENTMENT RELATIONS, Brussels, 23 May 2013. European Commission, Press Release, “EU imposes provisional anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese solar panels”, Brussels, 04 June 2013. EUROSTAT http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat IMF http://www.imf.org/ Ministry of Commerce, PR China http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/ The Economist http://www.economist.com/node/17733177 The World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/ Trading Economics http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ UNCTAD http://unctad.org/ World Trade Organization https://www.wto.org/

THE IMPACT OF THE EXPONENTIALLY RISING ECONOMIC GROWTH OF CHINA IN THE EU

Year 2018, Volume: 4 Issue: 11, 432 - 447, 31.08.2018

Scott Vitkovic

https://doi.org/10.18769/ijasos.455670

Abstract

Four decades have passed since the
EU and China established diplomatic relations in 1975, and now became mutually
indispensable economic partners, presenting both an opportunity and challenge.
During that time, after the first market reforms were introduced in 1978, China
has transitioned from a predominantly agricultural to industrial and
service-oriented economy. On 11 December 2001, China also became the 143rd
member of the WTO. The aim of this research is to quantitatively compare the
US, EU and Chinese GDP from 1995 to 2014, the US and Chinese outward FDI from
1995 to 2013, and the EU 28 Total Imports from and Exports to the US and China
between 2002 to 2014, and analyse the impact of the exponentially rising
Chinese investments in the European Union (EU). We have found that while the US
economy experienced a regression in general, and exhibited outward FDI
exponential decrease in particular, the Chinese outward FDI sustained an
exponential growth. Our analysis has shown that the now weakened US dollar and
diminished US economic and industrial power, along with the US designed and
archaic post World War II European institutions, vitiated by the recent US
Economic Recession, which has swept along the EU and all other US dependent
foreign economies globally, are and will continue to experience the primary
impact of the exponentially rising economic investment of China in the EU.
Furthermore, we have found that the Chinese economic growth has been affecting
both the EU identity and policies. Yet, its full effect is waiting to be
realized. The Chinese investment in the EU is estimated to peak during the next
decade, when China will become by far the foremost economic partner of the EU.
This crossroad may be reached as soon as in few years’ time and contribute
towards the EU – Asian regional stabilization. In the changing context of the
Sino – EU - US relations, due to the exponentially growing economic prosperity
and rising global influence of China, the EU international institutions and
socio-political structures will re-emerge with the once forgotten access to the
21st Century Silk Road Economic Belt, “The Silk Road II”, between China and the
EU in the foreseeable future.

Keywords

P.R. China European Union (EU) United States (US) Sino-EU Relations Global Recession GDP Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Export Import Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) Protectionism Belt and Road Initiative (OBOR) Silk Road Economic Belt (丝绸之路经济带) 21st Century Maritime Silk Route Economic Belt" (21世纪海上丝绸之路)

References

  • Adam, S. “China May Surpass U.S. by 2020 in `Super Cycle,' Standard Chartered Says”, Bloomberg, 15 November 2010. Anagnostou, A., Kallioras D. and Petrakos G. “Integrating the Neighbors: A dynamic panel analysis of EU-ENP trade relations”, SEARCH Working Paper, 2/11, September 2013. BEIJING, Xinhua. “China's Policy Paper on the EU: Deepen the China-EU Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Mutual Benefit and Win-win Cooperation”, 02 April 2014. Bendini, R. “Trade and economic relations with China 2014”, European Union Policy Department, 15 May 2014. Casarini, N. “The evolution of the EU-China relationship: from constructive engagement to strategic partnership”, European Union Institute for Security Studies, Occasional Paper No 64, October 2006. Commission of the European Communities, White Paper on Growth, Competitiveness, Employment – the Challenges and Ways Forward into the 21st Century, COM (93) 700 final, Brussels, December 1993. Chen, X. “China-EU Trade and Economic Relations (2003-2013) “, Working Paper Series on European Studies, Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Vol. 7, No. 7, 2013. Ciuchina, M. “Political Impact of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the European Union (EU)“, Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing, Vol. 9, No. 12, 1611-1618, ISSN 1548-6583, December 2013. Clegg, J. and Voss, H. “Chineese Overseas Direct Investment in the European Union “, Europe China Research and Advice Network, 2012. Das, D. “China’s Outbound Foreign Direct Investment: Sources of Growth and Transformation”, Research Center for Chinese Politics and Business, RCCPB Working Paper #35, August 2014. Dollar, D. “United States-China Two-way Direct Investment: Opportunities and Challenges “, Brookings Institution, January 2015. Dunkley, E. “China to overtake US by 2018 – PwC”, Investment Week, 13 Jan 2011. Erixon, F. and Messerlin, P. “Containing Sino-European Protectionism”, Economic Affairs, Vol. 29, Issue 1, pp. 83-85, March 2009. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0270.2009. 01874.x Freeman, D. “China's Outward Investment: A Policy Overview”, BICCS Policy Paper, 2008. Friedman, G. “A Net Assessment of the World “, Geopolitical Weekly, 19 May 2015. Geeraerts, G. “EU-China Relations “, Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies (BICCS), Published as Chapter 31, Thomsas Christiansen, Emil Kirchner and Philomena Murray (eds.), The Palgrave Handbook of EU-Asia Relations, Houndmills, Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 492-508, 2013, (ISBN 978-0-230-37869-8). Griese, O. “EU-China relations–an assessment by the communications of the European Union”, Asia Europe Journal, Volume 4, Issue 4, pp 545-553, December 2006. Gurdgiev, C. “China Threat: Europe's Exports Under Pressure “, True Economics, 07 January 2015. Hanemann, T. and Rosen, D. “China Invests in Europe: Patterns, Impacts and Policy Implications “, Rhodium Group, June 2012. Hawksworth, J. “Convergence, Catch-Up and Overtaking: How the balance of world economic power is shifting”, January 2010. Hawksworth, J., & Tiwari, A. “The World in 2050 - The Accelerating Shift of Global Economic Power: Challenges and Opportunities”, January 2011. Heron, T. “European Trade Diplomacy and the Politics of Global Development: Reflections on the EU–China ‘Bra Wars’ Dispute”, Government Opposition (Impact Factor: 0.5). 03/2007; 42(2):190 – 214, 14 March 2007. DOI:10.1111/j.1477-7053.2007. 00218.x Kennedy, S. “China's Porous Protectionism: The Changing Political Economy of Trade Policy”, Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 120, No. 3 (Fall, 2005), pp. 407-432, Fall 2005. Kim, K. H. “China’s Entry into WTO and Its Impact On EU “, International Business & Economics Research Journal, Volume 3, Number 9, pp. 65-68, 2011. KPMG. “China Outlook 2015”. kpmg.com/cn and kpmg.com/globalchina Lian, L. “Overview of Outward FDI Flows of China”, International Business Research, Volume 4, No. 3; July 2011. McDonnell, J. “China-EU Relations: Trade and Beyond”, The Diplomat, 24 April 2014. Meunier, S. “A Faustian bargain or just a good bargain? Chinese foreign direct investment and politics in Europe “, Asia Europe Journal, Volume 12, Issue 1-2, pp 143-158, March 2014. Meunier, S. “Political Impact of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in the European Union on Transatlantic Relations”, European Parliament Briefing Paper, 2012. Meunier, S., Burgoon, B and Jacoby, W. “The politics of hosting Chinese investment in Europe”, Asia Europe Journal, Volume 12, Issue 1-2, pp 109-126, March 2014. O´ Hara, Ch. “China and the EU: Economy Prevails”, Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP), POLICY BRIEF, No. 37, October 01, 2010. Ross, J. “The central date for China's GDP to overtake the US at market exchange rates is 2019 - A study of growth assumptions and analysis”, Key Trends in the World Economy, 15 February, 2011. Sahoo, P. “Foreign Direct Investment in South Asia: Policy, Trends, Impact and Determinants”, ADB Institute Discussion Paper No. 56, Asian Development Bank Institute, November 2006. The World Bank, Development Research Center of the State Council, the People’s Republic of China. “China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative Society”, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, 2013. DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9545-5. http://www.worldbank.org/ Voss, H. “The Foreign Direct Investment Behavior of Chinese Firms: Does the 'New Institutional Theory' Approach offer Explanatory Power?”, Leeds University Business School Center for International Business Studies, June 2007. Wong, R. “The issues of Identity in the EU-China Relationship”, UACES Annual Conference, Panel 313, Passau, September 2012. WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION. “ACCESSION OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA”, WT/L/432, DECISION OF 10 NOVEMBER 2001, 23 NOVEMBER 2001. Zhang, H. “China’s direct investment in Europe: The reality behind the numbers”, Belgian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, Brussels, 14 September 2011. Zhang, H., Yang, Z. & Van Den Bulcke, D. “Chinese owned enterprises in Europe: A study of corporate and entrepreneurial firms and the role of sister city relationship”, Antwerp, Belgium, Euro-China Centre, Antwerp Management School, 2013. Zhang, H. “Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment in the EU”, Report, The EU SME Centre, Beijing, July 2014. European Commission, Directorate – General for Trade, Countries and Regions: China. http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/china/ European Commission, IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT ON THE EU-CHINA INVESTMENTMENT RELATIONS, Brussels, 23 May 2013. European Commission, Press Release, “EU imposes provisional anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese solar panels”, Brussels, 04 June 2013. EUROSTAT http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat IMF http://www.imf.org/ Ministry of Commerce, PR China http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/ The Economist http://www.economist.com/node/17733177 The World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/ Trading Economics http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ UNCTAD http://unctad.org/ World Trade Organization https://www.wto.org/
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Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Scott Vitkovic

Publication Date August 31, 2018
Submission Date May 31, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 4 Issue: 11

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EndNote Vitkovic S (August 1, 2018) THE IMPACT OF THE EXPONENTIALLY RISING ECONOMIC GROWTH OF CHINA IN THE EU. IJASOS- International E-journal of Advances in Social Sciences 4 11 432–447.
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