International E-Journal of Advances in Social Sciences

Öz

The
past 15 years of exceptionally severe water scarcity in the Islamic Republic of
Iran have resulted in the desertification and salinity of formerly arable
lands, drying out of Iranian lakes and rivers, and quickly shrinking
groundwater resources, while water demand has risen, along with the size of the
Iranian population, of which over 70% lives in urban areas now. We have aimed
to discover the causes of water scarcity in the IR Iran and evaluated its social and economic impacts.
First, we computed the Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation (WASP)
Index for the period of 1979-2014. To illustrate the social impact of
water scarcity, we analyzed the current water risk for the twenty most populous
Iranian cities, by employing the composite index approach to translate
hydrological data into comprehensible indicators of water related risks, and
made a projection for 2020-2030, by modeling potential changes in the future
demand and supply of water. To demonstrate the economic impact of water
scarcity, we evaluated the overall agricultural contribution to the IR Iran
GDP. We have found that the 1999 severe drought in the IR Iran commenced a
period of unusually dry conditions that is still ongoing. The rapidly
growing Iranian urban populations presently experience a medium to extremely
high overall water risk, with extremely high baseline water stress
that, in part, is due to the lack of upstream protected lands. The relationship
between baseline water stress and drought severity has been determined as
weak, confirming that other factors than drought are equally or more
important contributors to the existing water risk. Our projection calculations
indicate that Iranian urban populations will continue to experience an extremely
high water stress for the coming decade. Due to the fast growth of these
populations as well as considerable rise of value added to the IR Iran GDP by
other sectors of the national economy, the contribution of agricultural
production to the national GDP has declined from about 25% to under
10% (although its total yield has risen considerably) during the past 30 years.
This decrease has been directly proportional to the increased foreign food
imports, dependency on the IR Iran oil exports and reduction in the non-oil
exports. The main causes of water scarcity in the IR Iran appear to be due to
climatic factors, insufficient environmental protection, and over-exploitation
and mismanagement of water resources, especially by the agricultural sector. In
conclusion, our study proposes anti-wasting water management action plan that
recommends shifting the IR Iran government response to water scarcity from
reactive survival strategies to proactive crisis prevention, with emphasis on
safeguarding, monitoring, early warning, and effective step-by-step
preparedness and readiness, and by laterally integrating water management
between all levels of the IR Iran government, including local, regional and
national, for a sustainable, resilient and prosperous economy of the Islamic
Republic of Iran now and in the future.