Abstract
References
- Primary Sources Ahmad, Y.J., Kassas, M. “Desertification: Financial Support for The Biosphere”, Hodder and Stoughton, London, 1987. Akbari, M. Hosseini, M., Sharifzadeh, A. “Causes, Effects and Management Mechanisms of Drought Crisisin Rural and Nomadic Communities in Southeastern Iran as Perceived by Agricultural/Rural Managers and Specialist”, Journal of Human Ecology, 27(3):189-200, 2009. Aliabadi, R. & Bonakdar, B. “Iran’s water supply challenge”, PressTV, 30 April 2015. Amiraslani, F. and Dragovich, D. “Combating desertification in Iran over the last 50 years An overview of changing approaches”, Journal of Environmental Management (Impact Factor: 3.19), January 2011; 92(1):1-13. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.08.012 Anon. “Strategic national plan for the desert – outlook 2025”, 2008, (In Persian). Bates, B., Kundzewicz, Z., Wu, S., Palutikof, J. “Climate Change and Water”, Technical Paper, International Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC) Secretariat, Geneva, 2008. Barlow, M., Cullen, H., Lyon, B. and Wilhelmi, O. “Drought Disaster in Asia”, Disaster Risk Management Series No. 6, The World Bank, DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6332-4 Bayad, H., Ghanbari, S., Rezayi, S., . “Socio–Economical Impact Assessment of Drought on the Rural Agriculture; a Case Study of Rural District in Southern Iran”, International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 53-56, 2015. DOI: 10.11648/j.ijepp.20150302.14 Bidabadi, F., Jansouz, P., and Pahlavani, M. “Research and Development Spending and Value Added of Agricultural Sector of Iran”, International Journal of Agronomy and Plant Production, Vol., 4 (9), 2097-2101, 2013. Boboevich, G., Momeni, F., Tir, N. “Exploring the Effects of Water Sector Investment in Economic Development in Iran”, 3rd World Conference on Educational Technology Researches 2013, WCETR 2013, 7-9 November 2013, Antalya, Turkey, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Volume 131, Pages 396–405, 15 May 2014. Bozorgmehr, N. “Ecological disaster looms in Iran’s dying wetlands”, FT, 13 February 2015. Dastorani, M., Kousari, M., Malekinezhad, H. and Mobin, M. “Drought Monitoring by Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) in Iran”, Water Resource Management, 25:3485–3504, October 2011. DOI 10.1007/s11269-011-9867-1 Faramarzi, M., Abbaspour, K.C., Schulin, R., Yang, H. “Modeling blue and green water resources availability in Iran”, Hydrological Processes, 23, 486-501, 2009. Foghi, M. “The Impact of Drought on Agriculture and Fisheries in Iran”, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 430, Rome, 2003. ISBN 92-5-105047-3. Garshasbi, P. “Drought conditions and management strategies in Iran”, Jihad Agriculture Ministry of the IR Iran, 2014. Ghobadian, B. and Gorjian, S. “Corrigendum to Solar desalination: A sustainable solution to water crisis in Iran”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, 48, 571–584, 10 June 2015. Hayati, D., Karbalaee, F. and Yazdanpanah, M. “Coping with Drought: The Case of Poor Farmers of South Iran”, Psychology and Developing Societies, 22(2) 361–383, 2010. DOI: 10.1177/097133361002200206 Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Wilhite, D. “Understanding the complex impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness”, Water Resource Management, 21:763–774, 2007. DOI 10.1007/s11269-006-9076-5 Karami, E., Keshavarz, M., Vanclay, F. “The social experience of drought in rural Iran”, Land Use Policy, 30(1):120-129, January 2013. Karimkoshteh, M.H., Haghiri, M. “Water-reform strategies in Iran’s agricultural sector”, Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, 3 (3), 327-346, 2004. Keramat, A., Marivani, B., and Samsami, M. “Climatic Change, Drought and Dust Crisis in Iran”, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 5, 26 September 2011. Khajeddin, S.J. “Desertification trend in Iran”, Jangal-o-Marta, 74, 42-45 (in Persian), 2007. Khajehpour, B. “Iran sinks in water crisis”, Al Monitor, 3 May 2014. Lehane, S. “The Iranian Water Crisis”, Strategic Analysis of Australia's Global Interests, 27 February 2014. Li W., Qin Z., Tang H., Zhang H, Zhao S, Wang Q. “Modeling impact of agro–drought on grain production in China”, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 7: 109–121, 2014. Lyon, B., and Barnston, A.“ENSO and the spatial extent of inter annual precipitation extremes in tropical land areas”, Journal of Climate, 18, 5095-5109, 2005. Mahdi, A., Mahdi, M., and Shafiei, M. “Factors Influencing Rural-Urban Migration from Mountainous Areas in Iran: A Case Study in West Esfahan”, European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, Vol. 3, No. 3, 2014. Modarres, R., da Silva, V.P.R. “Rainfall trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran”, Journal of Arid Environments, 70, 344-355, 2007. NAP, National Action Programme to Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought of Islamic Republic of Iran. The Forest, Rangeland and Watershed Management Organization, Tehran, 2005. Okidegbe, N. “Rural poverty: Trends and measurement”, Rural development strategy background paper No. 3, The World Bank, 2001. Qadir, M., Qureshi, A.S., Cheraghi, S.A.M. “Extent and characterization of salt affected soils in Iran and strategies for their amelioration and management”, Land Degradation and Development, 19, 214-227, 2008. Reheis, M.C. “A 16-year record of eolian dust in Southern Nevada and California, USA: controls on dust generation and accumulation”, Journal of Arid Environments, 67, 487-520, 2006. Saboohi, M. and Soltani, G. “Economic and social impacts of groundwater overdraft: The case of Iran”, 15th Economic Research Forum Annual Conference, Cairo, Egypt, 23-25 November 2008. Salami, H., Shahnooshi, N., Thomson, K. “The economic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macro-econometric modeling approaches”, Ecological Economics (Impact Factor: 2.52); 68(4): 1032-1039, 02-2009. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.12.003, The World Bank. “The Northern Cities Water Supply and Sanitation Project”, Document of The World Bank, Report No: 31984 – IR, Pages 29-30, April 28, 2005. United Nations Development Programme (2006). Human Development Report 2006: Beyond Scarcity–Power, Poverty and the Global Water Crisis. Basingstoke, United Kingdom: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006. Vahidnia, F. “Case study: Fertility decline in Iran”, Population and Environment, 28, pp. 259–266, 2007. Van Zyl, J., Nel, H. and Groenewald, J. “Die bydrae van landbou tot die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie”, Agrekon, 27(2), 1-9, 1988. Walter, J. “World Disasters Report 2004: Focus on Community Resilience”, Kumarian, Bloomfield, CT, US, 2004. Websites AQUASTAT http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm IR Iran Ministry of Agriculture http://www.maj.ir/Portal/Home/# Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) Database https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/ The World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/ UN Development Programme http://hdr.undp.org/en UN Sustainable Development https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.html World Resources Institute http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/aqueduct
Abstract
The
past 15 years of exceptionally severe water scarcity in the Islamic Republic of
Iran have resulted in the desertification and salinity of formerly arable
lands, drying out of Iranian lakes and rivers, and quickly shrinking
groundwater resources, while water demand has risen, along with the size of the
Iranian population, of which over 70% lives in urban areas now. We have aimed
to discover the causes of water scarcity in the IR Iran and evaluated its social and economic impacts.
First, we computed the Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation (WASP)
Index for the period of 1979-2014. To illustrate the social impact of
water scarcity, we analyzed the current water risk for the twenty most populous
Iranian cities, by employing the composite index approach to translate
hydrological data into comprehensible indicators of water related risks, and
made a projection for 2020-2030, by modeling potential changes in the future
demand and supply of water. To demonstrate the economic impact of water
scarcity, we evaluated the overall agricultural contribution to the IR Iran
GDP. We have found that the 1999 severe drought in the IR Iran commenced a
period of unusually dry conditions that is still ongoing. The rapidly
growing Iranian urban populations presently experience a medium to extremely
high overall water risk, with extremely high baseline water stress
that, in part, is due to the lack of upstream protected lands. The relationship
between baseline water stress and drought severity has been determined as
weak, confirming that other factors than drought are equally or more
important contributors to the existing water risk. Our projection calculations
indicate that Iranian urban populations will continue to experience an extremely
high water stress for the coming decade. Due to the fast growth of these
populations as well as considerable rise of value added to the IR Iran GDP by
other sectors of the national economy, the contribution of agricultural
production to the national GDP has declined from about 25% to under
10% (although its total yield has risen considerably) during the past 30 years.
This decrease has been directly proportional to the increased foreign food
imports, dependency on the IR Iran oil exports and reduction in the non-oil
exports. The main causes of water scarcity in the IR Iran appear to be due to
climatic factors, insufficient environmental protection, and over-exploitation
and mismanagement of water resources, especially by the agricultural sector. In
conclusion, our study proposes anti-wasting water management action plan that
recommends shifting the IR Iran government response to water scarcity from
reactive survival strategies to proactive crisis prevention, with emphasis on
safeguarding, monitoring, early warning, and effective step-by-step
preparedness and readiness, and by laterally integrating water management
between all levels of the IR Iran government, including local, regional and
national, for a sustainable, resilient and prosperous economy of the Islamic
Republic of Iran now and in the future.
Keywords
Agriculture Desertification Drought Environment GDP Islamic Republic of Iran Pollution Salinity Urbanization Water Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation (WASP) Index;
References
- Primary Sources Ahmad, Y.J., Kassas, M. “Desertification: Financial Support for The Biosphere”, Hodder and Stoughton, London, 1987. Akbari, M. Hosseini, M., Sharifzadeh, A. “Causes, Effects and Management Mechanisms of Drought Crisisin Rural and Nomadic Communities in Southeastern Iran as Perceived by Agricultural/Rural Managers and Specialist”, Journal of Human Ecology, 27(3):189-200, 2009. Aliabadi, R. & Bonakdar, B. “Iran’s water supply challenge”, PressTV, 30 April 2015. Amiraslani, F. and Dragovich, D. “Combating desertification in Iran over the last 50 years An overview of changing approaches”, Journal of Environmental Management (Impact Factor: 3.19), January 2011; 92(1):1-13. DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.08.012 Anon. “Strategic national plan for the desert – outlook 2025”, 2008, (In Persian). Bates, B., Kundzewicz, Z., Wu, S., Palutikof, J. “Climate Change and Water”, Technical Paper, International Panel on Climate Change, (IPCC) Secretariat, Geneva, 2008. Barlow, M., Cullen, H., Lyon, B. and Wilhelmi, O. “Drought Disaster in Asia”, Disaster Risk Management Series No. 6, The World Bank, DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6332-4 Bayad, H., Ghanbari, S., Rezayi, S., . “Socio–Economical Impact Assessment of Drought on the Rural Agriculture; a Case Study of Rural District in Southern Iran”, International Journal of Environmental Protection and Policy, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 53-56, 2015. DOI: 10.11648/j.ijepp.20150302.14 Bidabadi, F., Jansouz, P., and Pahlavani, M. “Research and Development Spending and Value Added of Agricultural Sector of Iran”, International Journal of Agronomy and Plant Production, Vol., 4 (9), 2097-2101, 2013. Boboevich, G., Momeni, F., Tir, N. “Exploring the Effects of Water Sector Investment in Economic Development in Iran”, 3rd World Conference on Educational Technology Researches 2013, WCETR 2013, 7-9 November 2013, Antalya, Turkey, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Volume 131, Pages 396–405, 15 May 2014. Bozorgmehr, N. “Ecological disaster looms in Iran’s dying wetlands”, FT, 13 February 2015. Dastorani, M., Kousari, M., Malekinezhad, H. and Mobin, M. “Drought Monitoring by Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) in Iran”, Water Resource Management, 25:3485–3504, October 2011. DOI 10.1007/s11269-011-9867-1 Faramarzi, M., Abbaspour, K.C., Schulin, R., Yang, H. “Modeling blue and green water resources availability in Iran”, Hydrological Processes, 23, 486-501, 2009. Foghi, M. “The Impact of Drought on Agriculture and Fisheries in Iran”, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 430, Rome, 2003. ISBN 92-5-105047-3. Garshasbi, P. “Drought conditions and management strategies in Iran”, Jihad Agriculture Ministry of the IR Iran, 2014. Ghobadian, B. and Gorjian, S. “Corrigendum to Solar desalination: A sustainable solution to water crisis in Iran”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Review, 48, 571–584, 10 June 2015. Hayati, D., Karbalaee, F. and Yazdanpanah, M. “Coping with Drought: The Case of Poor Farmers of South Iran”, Psychology and Developing Societies, 22(2) 361–383, 2010. DOI: 10.1177/097133361002200206 Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Wilhite, D. “Understanding the complex impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness”, Water Resource Management, 21:763–774, 2007. DOI 10.1007/s11269-006-9076-5 Karami, E., Keshavarz, M., Vanclay, F. “The social experience of drought in rural Iran”, Land Use Policy, 30(1):120-129, January 2013. Karimkoshteh, M.H., Haghiri, M. “Water-reform strategies in Iran’s agricultural sector”, Perspectives on Global Development and Technology, 3 (3), 327-346, 2004. Keramat, A., Marivani, B., and Samsami, M. “Climatic Change, Drought and Dust Crisis in Iran”, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 5, 26 September 2011. Khajeddin, S.J. “Desertification trend in Iran”, Jangal-o-Marta, 74, 42-45 (in Persian), 2007. Khajehpour, B. “Iran sinks in water crisis”, Al Monitor, 3 May 2014. Lehane, S. “The Iranian Water Crisis”, Strategic Analysis of Australia's Global Interests, 27 February 2014. Li W., Qin Z., Tang H., Zhang H, Zhao S, Wang Q. “Modeling impact of agro–drought on grain production in China”, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 7: 109–121, 2014. Lyon, B., and Barnston, A.“ENSO and the spatial extent of inter annual precipitation extremes in tropical land areas”, Journal of Climate, 18, 5095-5109, 2005. Mahdi, A., Mahdi, M., and Shafiei, M. “Factors Influencing Rural-Urban Migration from Mountainous Areas in Iran: A Case Study in West Esfahan”, European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, Vol. 3, No. 3, 2014. Modarres, R., da Silva, V.P.R. “Rainfall trends in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran”, Journal of Arid Environments, 70, 344-355, 2007. NAP, National Action Programme to Combat Desertification and Mitigate the Effects of Drought of Islamic Republic of Iran. The Forest, Rangeland and Watershed Management Organization, Tehran, 2005. Okidegbe, N. “Rural poverty: Trends and measurement”, Rural development strategy background paper No. 3, The World Bank, 2001. Qadir, M., Qureshi, A.S., Cheraghi, S.A.M. “Extent and characterization of salt affected soils in Iran and strategies for their amelioration and management”, Land Degradation and Development, 19, 214-227, 2008. Reheis, M.C. “A 16-year record of eolian dust in Southern Nevada and California, USA: controls on dust generation and accumulation”, Journal of Arid Environments, 67, 487-520, 2006. Saboohi, M. and Soltani, G. “Economic and social impacts of groundwater overdraft: The case of Iran”, 15th Economic Research Forum Annual Conference, Cairo, Egypt, 23-25 November 2008. Salami, H., Shahnooshi, N., Thomson, K. “The economic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macro-econometric modeling approaches”, Ecological Economics (Impact Factor: 2.52); 68(4): 1032-1039, 02-2009. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.12.003, The World Bank. “The Northern Cities Water Supply and Sanitation Project”, Document of The World Bank, Report No: 31984 – IR, Pages 29-30, April 28, 2005. United Nations Development Programme (2006). Human Development Report 2006: Beyond Scarcity–Power, Poverty and the Global Water Crisis. Basingstoke, United Kingdom: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006. Vahidnia, F. “Case study: Fertility decline in Iran”, Population and Environment, 28, pp. 259–266, 2007. Van Zyl, J., Nel, H. and Groenewald, J. “Die bydrae van landbou tot die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie”, Agrekon, 27(2), 1-9, 1988. Walter, J. “World Disasters Report 2004: Focus on Community Resilience”, Kumarian, Bloomfield, CT, US, 2004. Websites AQUASTAT http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm IR Iran Ministry of Agriculture http://www.maj.ir/Portal/Home/# Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) Database https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/ The World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/ UN Development Programme http://hdr.undp.org/en UN Sustainable Development https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.html World Resources Institute http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/aqueduct
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | April 28, 2019 |
| Submission Date | February 2, 2019 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2019 |
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